Tim Douwsma geeft de Nederlandse punten

Lees net een verslag van de site escTips over de kwalificatie kansen van semi1

Potential Winners

Despite being unfavourably positioned in slot 1, Armenia are still capable of doing serious damage in this semi-final. Not Alone is a dramatic and memorable song that should explode on stage, but rehearsals so far have underwhelmed. You’d expect Armenia to be top-3, but if second rehearsal failed to ignite, confidence may being to wane. The odds currently available are unpalatable given how open this semi-final is, though at this point, I’d wait until the second rehearsals before going big in the outright. Just after the running order was published, I did consult a fellow Eurovision punter to gauge their reaction. I felt Armenia’s running order slot might be a sign that the EBU weren’t keen on an Armenian win. Conversely, as was suggested: “this now gives them plausible deniability if they give Armenia a great draw in the final and Azerbaijan a terrible one.”
Dismiss Azerbaijan at your peril. Start a Fire might not be the most instant of songs, but it features stunning vocals and a well crafted melody. We know Azerbaijan have a history of putting on great stage shows and the trapeze artist is a visually interesting gimmick without being too outlandish! I expect we will witness plenty of fire in rehearsal two.
Ukraine’s troubles rumble on and despite early 10/1 odds, I’m still unconvinced that Ukraine will take the semi win. The sympathy vote will be there, but I reckon Ukraine will be fighting for 2nd and 3rd place. Their hamster wheel stage show needs something more!
Kállay Saunders’ Running has never been a favourite song of mine and I think Hungary’s popularity has been somewhat overrated to date. Even so, it’s rare that a song performed from the pimp slot fails to hit the top-3. The stage show in Copenhagen still doesn’t engage as much as some of the simpler melodies. Plus, it’s difficult to imagine widespread support for Kállay on race grounds.
Current Qualifiers

Other than those mentioned above…
When The Common Linnets said they would take time to consider the best song for Eurovision, I expected something much stronger than Calm After the Storm . I do enjoy listening to their song, but it’s far too dull for the average Eurovision semi-final viewer. Having said that, Netherlands‘ have put together an intense stage show which looks too good not to make the final.
I believe the strength of Axel’s performance should see Belgium qualify. Mother is a gripping song that is brilliantly performed. Axel has the look of an underdog, so he should stand out to the average Eurovision viewer watching for the first time. I predict a decent spread of points for Belgium and had they been drawn last, I might have taken the outright semi-final win.
It’s not often we talk of Russia struggling to qualify. Last time I entertained such an event was back in 2010 when Peter Nalitch qualified with 29 points to spare. Russia’s recent foreign policy should cancel out support from most Western nations, in addition to some of the Baltic states. Having said that, I think Russia’s diaspora will be multi-voting in their droves, so they should just get through.
Wild Soul is a mess, but Moldova have only failed to qualify once since 2008. In Amsterdam, Wild Soul was more palatable, so I’ve moved them on to my qualification list.
Still Fighting

Sanna’s Undo is a difficult song to like and Sweden’s first half draw in semi-final 1 is far from ideal. Sanna was a qualifier in my book, but I feel the need to change Sweden back to amber. I’m sensing Georgia mark II and I think Sweden’s presentation is too calculated and fails to break new ground. The value is to lay Sweden making the final!
I usually shy away from calling upbeat songs as certain qualifiers and since witnessing their dreary first rehearsal, I think Tanja’s Amazing is in trouble for Estonia.
Thankfully, Iceland switched their song to English to maximise the impact of their No Prejudice hook. Iceland are also fairly well represented in this semi-final and their stage show it eye-catching and memorable. They might just sneak qualification and force one of the big beasts of Eurovision out.
A lot will be made of Valentina’s third shot at qualifying for San Marino. Plus, I think their stage show works a lot better on camera. If Valentina is interviewed during the semi-final, I expect the 3-time lucky narrate to inspire a sympathy vote.
Down & Out

Latvia. It looks and sounds far too amateurish and the second slot in the running order will be difficult to overcome.
I have switched Montenegro to red, as their stage show looks naff. Sergej is a great singer, but lacks the charisma of Zeljko. I think Netherlands will win the battle of the dull songs.
Like Montenegro, Albania have a habit of picking up questionable points from certain nations. However, since watching Hersi perform in Amsterdam, I think One Night’s Anger is far too insipid to qualify.
Portugal was vocally messy during their national final, but it seemed to go down well in Amsterdam. The three friendly nations in Spain, France and San Marino make things interesting and I think Portugal stands out well in the latter part of semi-final 1. Even so, I doubt the juries will allow Portugal to make it through.

Leuk voor Tim Douwsma. Wel had hij toen steengoeie backingvocals. Maar het liedje van Bruce was een beetje magertjes uitgewerkt.

Ach leuk visitekaartje voor Nederland toch, leuke jongen niets mis mee..

Tim Douwsma; gayer kán bijna niet!